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小 发表于 07-6-13 11:06 只看该作者
(2007 Wiley)Wireless Communications：The Future(pdf)
(2007 Wiley)Wireless Communications：The Future(pdf) |  | 收藏 | | | 作者 | Professor William Webb | | ＩＳＢＮ | 978-0-470-03312-8 | | 出版日期/版本 | 2007 | | 格式 | ＰＤＦ Adobe Acrobat |
主题内容 | | My previous book forecasting the future, The Future of Wireless Communications, was published in 2001, but mostly written during 2000. This was the time just before the ‘dot.com bubble’ burst. At that point Internet and wireless companies were flying high, and to predict anything other than a bright future would have seemed highly pessimistic. Of course, that all changed during the latter part of 2000 and 2001 as is well known, and explored later. Now, predicting a bright future for wireless communications is more likely to be seen as unduly optimistic. As will be explored throughout this book, these changes in the market have broadly not changed the technological roadmap that we predicted earlier, but they have had an impact on the timing of the critical investment. Overall the events have been so tumultuous for the industry that another version of the book, some six years after the first edition, seems appropriate. Along with the wireless communications environment, my role has also changed somewhat. In September of 2001, a few months after the publication of The Future of Wireless Communications, I left Motorola and returned to the UK and to the consultancy environment. After a spell with PA Consulting Group, the UK’s sixth largest consulting company, I moved to Ofcom, the UK regulator of all things to do with communications, as the Head of Research and Development. This has given me the ability to commission research across a wide range of communications technologies and to be involved in developing policies, such as the UK’s ‘Spectrum Framework Review’ that will shape the industry and the future in their own right. Other appointments have helped me in this respect. I play a range of roles within the Institute of Engineering and Technology (IET) where I am a member of the Board of Trustees and chair of the Communications Engineer Magazine Advisory Panel. My appointment as a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering provides me with access to most of the key engineers in the UK and my role as a Visiting Professor at Surrey University gives me access to world-class research. Finally, my appointment to a number of judging panels such as the Wall Street Journal’s Annual Innovations Awards has provided me with valuable information and contacts in understanding strategic changes in the industry. In the preface of the earlier book, I noted that there seemed to be nobody producing a coherent and well thought-out vision as to how the whole world of wireless communications would develop, and perhaps converge, over the coming years; and that further, nobody seemed to be prepared to try to predict 20 years out. This still appears to be broadly the case – there have been a few books published with individual essays on the future but no coherent and complete text. Hence, I believe it is worthwhile to publish a new version of this book, to continue to provide some sort of a framework on which future strategic decisions can be made. Those readers who recall the earlier version will remember that around half of the book comprised contributions from a range of eminent industry experts. I have used the same format in this edition, but have elected to ask a different set of experts for their views. I have made this decision in order to provide increased diversity of views and not because of any implied criticism of the previous experts – indeed, as will be demonstrated throughout this book they did an outstanding job in predicting the future. Perhaps it is worth explaining why I am qualified to undertake such a task. I am an engineer, qualified to PhD level, but also with business qualifications. I have spent much of my career as a consultant, working across a wide range of different problems and issues with clients including regulators, governments, user groups, operators, manufacturers and SMEs. I have also spent time working for Motorola and for the UK regulator, Ofcom. Projects have varied from building hardware demonstrators of novel technologies through to developing business cases for operators planning national roll-outs. I have lived in the UK and the USA and worked for clients around the world including diverse environments such as South Africa, Bolivia, Denmark and Ireland. And above all else, I have previously made a range of predictions, almost all of which have proven to be accurate. As always, it is important to remember that ‘forecasting is very difficult, especially when it concerns the future’. The forecast presented in this book is highly unlikely to be correct in every respect. Regardless of this, the information presented here and the thought processes followed will be of value in helping others to build their own view of the future and to modify that view as circumstances change.
[ 本帖最后由 hanbin 于 07-6-13 11:12 编辑 ] |
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